Historical Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra River Basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya
摘要
Under ongoing climate change, rapid melting of glaciers, and continuous expansion of glacial lakes, the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) is increasing in the mountainous regions of the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). These river basins are some of the most populated river basins in the world and have the highest exposure to future GLOF events. Therefore, continuous monitoring of GLOFs is crucially important for better preparing for the future GLOF events by better understanding the GLOF mechanisms, developing mitigation strategies, and better community preparedness. This study tries to figure out the patterns of past GLOFs that have been reported in the IGB river basins by looking at the GLOF dataset created at the sub-basin level by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in 2022. The study reports 423 historical GLOF events in different subbasins of the IGB between 1533 and 2024. Among the major basins, the Indus River basin had the highest number of reported GLOF events (203), followed by the Brahmaputra River basin (122) and the Ganga River basin (98). The mean elevation of reported GLOFs in the IGB river basins is 4432.13 m asl, which is expected to increase in the upcoming future due to elevation-dependent warming, rapid melting of glaciers at higher elevations, and formation of new glacial lakes at higher elevations. Furthermore, the study found that reported GLOFs are highly influenced by regional topographic, cryospheric, hydrological, and climatic characteristics, which makes the prediction and modelling of these events difficult. Given these challenges, the present study will be of importance to researchers and local and international authorities as an input for better understanding and preparing for future GLOF events. This study investigates the impact of elevation-dependent warming on the rapid melting of glaciers at higher altitudes, alongside the formation of new glacial lakes in these regions. Our findings reveal that reported Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are significantly influenced by a combination of regional topographic, cryospheric, hydrological, and climatic characteristics, complicating predictions and modelling efforts for such events. Given these complexities, the present research is poised to provide valuable insights for researchers and local as well as international authorities, serving as a crucial resource for enhancing understanding and preparedness for future GLOF occurrences.