According to many economists, the coronavirus crisis, which appeared at the start of 2020, seems to belong to the famous “Black Swan” evoked in Nassim Taleb’s book (The Black Swan 2007) (Taleb 2020). Author Nassim Taleb preferred to evoke a situation closer to the theory developed by Michele Wuckeren (Wucker 2016). Evoking not an improbable event, but rather a “Gray Rhino” event relating to a highly probable threat, also having a considerable impact, due to a poor assessment of the risks involved. Whatever the case, unpredictable or predictable, this historic event, like the Spanish flu between the two world wars, called into question the world order inherited from 1945 (Dalio 2021). Human history has always been marked by other epidemics, such as the Spanish flu at the beginning of the twentieth century, or the Great Black Death which severely affected and scarred Europe in the fourteenth century (Pascal Boniface). Many stories, such as Albert Camus’ “The Plague” (Boniface 2020), tell of events that plunged humanity into confusion, denial, panic, disarray and a sense of powerlessness. It is therefore through a “weakened” system (Pascal Boniface) (Dumontel 2022). that we can focus our analysis on the questioning of a global model that operates on a just-in-time basis, but has become VUCA (Chaminade 2022, i.e. highly volatile due to the many changes, uncertain due to the level of unpredictability, complex due to the interconnection and interdependence of countries, and finally ambiguous because the superstructure is no longer in line with the infrastructure (Marx 1999). The big question is whether this event will lead our Western societies, particularly France and Slovakia, towards a more local, fairer, more ethical and, of course, more resilient model, i.e. from a “just in time” model to a “just in case” model.

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The Covid Pandemic as a Paradigm Shift and the Emergence of a New VUCA Situation

  • Olivier Dumontel,
  • Marian Šuplata,
  • Frédéric Delaneuville,
  • Alexandra Sekáčová

摘要

According to many economists, the coronavirus crisis, which appeared at the start of 2020, seems to belong to the famous “Black Swan” evoked in Nassim Taleb’s book (The Black Swan 2007) (Taleb 2020). Author Nassim Taleb preferred to evoke a situation closer to the theory developed by Michele Wuckeren (Wucker 2016). Evoking not an improbable event, but rather a “Gray Rhino” event relating to a highly probable threat, also having a considerable impact, due to a poor assessment of the risks involved. Whatever the case, unpredictable or predictable, this historic event, like the Spanish flu between the two world wars, called into question the world order inherited from 1945 (Dalio 2021). Human history has always been marked by other epidemics, such as the Spanish flu at the beginning of the twentieth century, or the Great Black Death which severely affected and scarred Europe in the fourteenth century (Pascal Boniface). Many stories, such as Albert Camus’ “The Plague” (Boniface 2020), tell of events that plunged humanity into confusion, denial, panic, disarray and a sense of powerlessness. It is therefore through a “weakened” system (Pascal Boniface) (Dumontel 2022). that we can focus our analysis on the questioning of a global model that operates on a just-in-time basis, but has become VUCA (Chaminade 2022, i.e. highly volatile due to the many changes, uncertain due to the level of unpredictability, complex due to the interconnection and interdependence of countries, and finally ambiguous because the superstructure is no longer in line with the infrastructure (Marx 1999). The big question is whether this event will lead our Western societies, particularly France and Slovakia, towards a more local, fairer, more ethical and, of course, more resilient model, i.e. from a “just in time” model to a “just in case” model.