Arboviruses are part of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) and are a global public health problem. Understanding and anticipating the outbreak of these arboviruses through predictive approaches is imperative in order to mitigate the associated direct and indirect impacts, especially in tropical regions. The aim of this study was therefore to create models to classify the predicted number of arbovirus cases into concentration intervals, as well as using a reservoir computing algorithm that reduces the training time of the models created. It obtained accuracy above 96.2%, precision and recall values above 0.962 and the training time was below 0.5 s for all the models.

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Spatio-Temporal Prediction of Arbovirus Cases Using a Reservoir Computing Algorithm

  • A. C. G. da Silva,
  • C. L. de Lima,
  • C. P. N. Silva,
  • D. W. Lapa,
  • F. E. da Silva,
  • J. M. V. Fonseca,
  • J. M. B. de Albuquerque,
  • M. M. da S. Andrade,
  • C. C. da Silva,
  • G. M. M. Moreno,
  • J. C. Gomes,
  • M. A. de Santana,
  • F. T. Borges,
  • K. A. Sancho,
  • M. F. S. de Mendonça,
  • H. R. L. de Melo,
  • C. A. V. Cavalcante,
  • G. E. Z. Acosta,
  • J. A. B. Junior,
  • M. S. Neves,
  • M. Mané,
  • R. V. Rosa,
  • W. P. dos Santos

摘要

Arboviruses are part of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) and are a global public health problem. Understanding and anticipating the outbreak of these arboviruses through predictive approaches is imperative in order to mitigate the associated direct and indirect impacts, especially in tropical regions. The aim of this study was therefore to create models to classify the predicted number of arbovirus cases into concentration intervals, as well as using a reservoir computing algorithm that reduces the training time of the models created. It obtained accuracy above 96.2%, precision and recall values above 0.962 and the training time was below 0.5 s for all the models.