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The recent natural disasters that occurred during the worst outbreaks of COVID-19 demonstrate a significant risk of causing a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases and fatalities during the post-disaster response and recovery period. This problem is caused by the lack of sufficient knowledge of the transmissibility of a contagious disease among vulnerable communities during disaster response activities. The present guidelines issued by the Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Centre (ICG/IOTWMS, Guidelines for Tsunami warning services, evacuation, and sheltering during COVID-19, 2020) mention that a tsunami evacuation order should take priority over COVID-19 self-isolation advice when evacuations are required. However, the guidelines do not indicate sufficient safe evacuation procedures for vulnerable communities. Therefore, knowledge of this aspect is identified as a significant need to prepare integrated guidelines for disaster management during a pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, this research aims to develop a framework for analysing tsunami evacuation scenarios in three case study areas in Sri Lanka for identifying the relationship between the transmission of the COVID-19 contagious disease and the tsunami evacuation routes. The research adopts the network centrality concept for modelling the effects of the pandemic in tsunami evacuation scenarios. An integrative literature review was conducted to explore the key components related to the areas of tsunami evacuation, road network connectivity and COVID-19 pandemic management. The key components were distinguished into three categories (risk identification, risk assessment and risk reduction) using expert opinion to composite the conceptual framework to integrate pandemic preparedness into tsunami evacuation planning. The result of the analysis demonstrates a significant risk in the transmission of the disease in existing evacuation routes. Accordingly, considering the result of the scenario analysis, a connectivity-based clustering evacuation strategy is proposed for planning tsunami evacuation during a pandemic outbreak.

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A Weighted Centrality-Based Scenario Analysis for Identifying the Most Suitable Evacuation Strategy for a Tsunami Hazard During a Pandemic Outbreak: Literature Review and an Expert Opinion Survey in Sri Lanka

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Malith Senevirathne,
  • Dilanthi Amaratunga,
  • Richard Haigh

摘要

The recent natural disasters that occurred during the worst outbreaks of COVID-19 demonstrate a significant risk of causing a sudden spike in COVID-19 cases and fatalities during the post-disaster response and recovery period. This problem is caused by the lack of sufficient knowledge of the transmissibility of a contagious disease among vulnerable communities during disaster response activities. The present guidelines issued by the Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Centre (ICG/IOTWMS, Guidelines for Tsunami warning services, evacuation, and sheltering during COVID-19, 2020) mention that a tsunami evacuation order should take priority over COVID-19 self-isolation advice when evacuations are required. However, the guidelines do not indicate sufficient safe evacuation procedures for vulnerable communities. Therefore, knowledge of this aspect is identified as a significant need to prepare integrated guidelines for disaster management during a pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, this research aims to develop a framework for analysing tsunami evacuation scenarios in three case study areas in Sri Lanka for identifying the relationship between the transmission of the COVID-19 contagious disease and the tsunami evacuation routes. The research adopts the network centrality concept for modelling the effects of the pandemic in tsunami evacuation scenarios. An integrative literature review was conducted to explore the key components related to the areas of tsunami evacuation, road network connectivity and COVID-19 pandemic management. The key components were distinguished into three categories (risk identification, risk assessment and risk reduction) using expert opinion to composite the conceptual framework to integrate pandemic preparedness into tsunami evacuation planning. The result of the analysis demonstrates a significant risk in the transmission of the disease in existing evacuation routes. Accordingly, considering the result of the scenario analysis, a connectivity-based clustering evacuation strategy is proposed for planning tsunami evacuation during a pandemic outbreak.