Exploring Opinion Dynamics Through Social Influence, Online Communication, and Leadership: A Fuzzy Cellular Automaton Approach
摘要
This simulation study presents an opinion dynamics model derived from the Hegselmann-Krause (HK) bounded confidence model, incorporating fuzzy cellular automata and the theory of Normative Social Influence (NSI) to investigate opinion changes of population via social interactions. The heterogeneous HK model, which describes population of agents, updating their opinions based on their neighbour’s average opinion within each agent’s confidence threshold, is extended to include online communication (1-many), leader’s influence, and dissenters, thereby modelling real-world scenarios exhaustively. Opinions and other parameters introduced in the model are fuzzified to accurately describe uncertainty in their values and tolerances towards change. It is seen that in a population, more zealots (or dissenters) cause groups to form around different opinions and reduce agreement, while higher confidence in one’s views helps keep a balance of opinions. Diplomacy is asserted to be a natural state for consensus in a diverse population and the rate of convergence to consensus is observed to show polynomial growth. This study also explores the dynamics of fringe groups led by a central figure and their influence on local populations. It highlights that when over three-fourths of agents are willing zealots, the time taken for extremist opinion dissolution exhibits a cubic polynomial increase with population size.