Hezbollah: Shaken to the Core
摘要
Hezbollah’s origins as an armed resistance movement against the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon have gradually been diluted over the past decades by its efforts to strengthen the party’s domestic power base within Lebanon, its foray into the Syrian civil war and its pursuit of regional objectives together with its chief sponsor Iran. The Palestinian cause has tended to be peripheral to Hezbollah’s main objectives all along, even though the party rhetorically uses the plight of the Palestinians to boost its resistance profile and legitimacy. The consequences of these developments have been decreasing support for Hezbollah in Lebanese society and a downgrade of its regional prestige. This put Hezbollah in a comparatively weak position in October 2023. Subsequently, the party chose a cautious strategy of military engagement with Israel. It intended to show low-cost solidarity with Hamas while pressuring Israel into a ceasefire in Gaza. Hezbollah’s strategy turned out to be a mistake as Israel had used the period since 2006 to prepare meticulously for the next conflict to devastating effect. Today, Hezbollah is “down, but not out”. The movement will focus on rebuilding, re-legitimising and revitalising itself over the next years. The Palestinian cause will have to wait.