Voter Dynamics in the 2024 Election: Stability with Hidden Currents of Change
摘要
This chapter examines how voters determined their choices in the general election. In a contest marked by apparent stability we observe considerable underlying volatility. Drawing on polling day survey data that capture the voters’ own explanations for their choices we look at three key questions. First, why did Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael maintain such strong support despite typical costs of governing? Second, how did the shift away from Sinn Féin towards independents and smaller parties relate to the rising prominence of immigration. And, thirdly, how are the deeper dynamics, most notably the generational divide, reshaping the Irish electorate beneath the surface of electoral continuity? To answer these questions and provide further insights on the 2024 vote we explore how demographics, values, issues, appraisals of the government and the economy as well as campaign and candidate-based drivers have influenced voting behaviour.