The symbiotic relationship between agricultural growth, economic growth, and climate change in Africa is explored in this research, with emphasis on the macroeconomic implications of these relationships. Using panel data for five African countries (South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria) from 1961 to 2021, the research employs sound econometric techniques, including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on income and agricultural income. The study also tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which proposes an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The results indicate a long-run cointegrating relationship among CO2 emissions, income, and agricultural income, with climate variables like temperature and CO2 emissions having significant impacts on economic and agricultural outcomes. The evidence is found to show bidirectional causality between GDP and CO2 emissions, indicating that economic growth determines environmental degradation and vice versa. The FMOLS model has mixed results to validate the EKC hypothesis, but the DOLS model supports it, which indicates that after a certain level of income, greater economic growth could reduce CO2 emissions. The research highlights the necessity for African economies to harmonize economic growth with environmental protection, stressing climate-smart agriculture and adherence to international environmental treaties such as COP21. Policymakers are called upon to look into the long-term consequences of climate change on economic and agricultural expansion, especially for risk-prone areas such as Africa, whose impacts of climate change are disproportionately high.

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Macroeconomic Implications for the Symbiotic Relationship Between Climate Change, Economic Growth and Agricultural Growth in Africa

  • Prosper E. Edoja,
  • Rosemary N. Okoh,
  • Goodness C. Aye,
  • Rangan Gupta

摘要

The symbiotic relationship between agricultural growth, economic growth, and climate change in Africa is explored in this research, with emphasis on the macroeconomic implications of these relationships. Using panel data for five African countries (South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria) from 1961 to 2021, the research employs sound econometric techniques, including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on income and agricultural income. The study also tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which proposes an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The results indicate a long-run cointegrating relationship among CO2 emissions, income, and agricultural income, with climate variables like temperature and CO2 emissions having significant impacts on economic and agricultural outcomes. The evidence is found to show bidirectional causality between GDP and CO2 emissions, indicating that economic growth determines environmental degradation and vice versa. The FMOLS model has mixed results to validate the EKC hypothesis, but the DOLS model supports it, which indicates that after a certain level of income, greater economic growth could reduce CO2 emissions. The research highlights the necessity for African economies to harmonize economic growth with environmental protection, stressing climate-smart agriculture and adherence to international environmental treaties such as COP21. Policymakers are called upon to look into the long-term consequences of climate change on economic and agricultural expansion, especially for risk-prone areas such as Africa, whose impacts of climate change are disproportionately high.