The totality of the typical earthquake precursor anomalies was described in detail in result of the construction and analysis of the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake (GVLE). The GVLE method summing up information on hundreds, up to one thousand, of the vicinities of individual strong earthquakes allows us to obtain a detailed and well-parameterized pattern of the behavior of the precursor anomalies. It seems promising to try to use this set of the anomalies in the earthquake forecasting. The question arises could these anomalies be robustly recognized in the foreshock areas of the separate strong events. This attempt was carried out for the world-wide ISC-GEM, GCMT catalogs, and for the regional catalog of Kamchatka and North Kurile Islands. For different catalogs, the proportion of retrospectively predicted events varies significantly. At the same time, there is a clear trend towards an increase in the share of retrospectively predicted events with an improvement in the completeness of the catalog used. When a sufficient (5–10) number of the events were recorded in the foreshock area of the given strong earthquake, the GVLE precursor anomalies can be robustly identified in the majority of cases. The problem of probability of arising and the method of minimizing of a number of the false alarms remain unclear.

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Earthquake Forecast Algorithm Based on the Set of Typical Anomalies Obtained in the General Vicinity of Large Earthquake

  • M. V. Rodkin

摘要

The totality of the typical earthquake precursor anomalies was described in detail in result of the construction and analysis of the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake (GVLE). The GVLE method summing up information on hundreds, up to one thousand, of the vicinities of individual strong earthquakes allows us to obtain a detailed and well-parameterized pattern of the behavior of the precursor anomalies. It seems promising to try to use this set of the anomalies in the earthquake forecasting. The question arises could these anomalies be robustly recognized in the foreshock areas of the separate strong events. This attempt was carried out for the world-wide ISC-GEM, GCMT catalogs, and for the regional catalog of Kamchatka and North Kurile Islands. For different catalogs, the proportion of retrospectively predicted events varies significantly. At the same time, there is a clear trend towards an increase in the share of retrospectively predicted events with an improvement in the completeness of the catalog used. When a sufficient (5–10) number of the events were recorded in the foreshock area of the given strong earthquake, the GVLE precursor anomalies can be robustly identified in the majority of cases. The problem of probability of arising and the method of minimizing of a number of the false alarms remain unclear.