The Change of Opinion During a Political Discussion
摘要
Lazarsfeld analyzes the dynamics of opinion change during a major political discussion, focusing on public reactions to Senator Hugo Black’s controversial appointment to the United States Supreme Court in 1937. Utilizing approximately 3,000 interviews conducted by the American Institute of Public Opinion, the research examines audience composition for Black’s nationwide radio address, identifying correlations between listening behavior and factors such as age, socioeconomic status, employment, and prior political attitudes. Key findings reveal that the interest in the broadcast was higher among older individuals and those of higher socioeconomic status, with the unemployed (“on relief”) listening more than employed peers of comparable status. The study highlights that changes in opinion predominantly occurred among individuals who were initially undecided, with public discourse facilitating the crystallization of views rather than shifting overall favorable–unfavorable balances. Over the course of the discussion, opinion alignment shifted from a socio-political (liberal vs. conservative) to a racial-religious divide (Protestant vs. Catholic/Jewish). Analysis of those who changed opinions suggests greater susceptibility among individuals whose political and religious affiliations were more strongly intertwined. The paper further considers methodological challenges, particularly the limitations of inferring the role of radio in opinion change, and advocates for subjective questions in mass surveys to better capture the influence of broadcast media on public attitudes.