This discussion chapter derives three main lessons of the preceding analyses and illustrates them through the metaphor of ‘waves’. First, it shows that in the studied cases, the rise and increase of autonomy demands and statutes were driven by a combination of sociological and rational-choice factors for strongly distinctive and aggrieved sub-state communities, and by a combination of sociological, functionalist, institutionalist and rational-choice factors for communities with weaker distinctiveness and grievances, to which the demands and statutes of the former spilled over. Secondly, it is shown that the paradox of federalism is to large extents a political dilemma that cannot be fully resolved because both the conferral and non-conferral of sub-state autonomy led to increases of autonomy demands. However, it is also shown that the non-conferral of sub-state autonomy can be expected to lead to a greater exacerbation of autonomy demands in large and strongly distinctive and aggrieved sub-state communities, while the non-conferral of autonomy in smaller or less distinctive and aggrieved sub-state communities appeared to lead to persisting autonomy demands, which conferrals accommodated after gradual increases. Thirdly and finally, four plausible scenarios of future evolutions are presented: partial de-federalisation, quasi confederalisation, independence and differentiated de- and re-federalisation.

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Three Waves of Sub-State Mobilisation and Restructuring

  • Christoph Niessen

摘要

This discussion chapter derives three main lessons of the preceding analyses and illustrates them through the metaphor of ‘waves’. First, it shows that in the studied cases, the rise and increase of autonomy demands and statutes were driven by a combination of sociological and rational-choice factors for strongly distinctive and aggrieved sub-state communities, and by a combination of sociological, functionalist, institutionalist and rational-choice factors for communities with weaker distinctiveness and grievances, to which the demands and statutes of the former spilled over. Secondly, it is shown that the paradox of federalism is to large extents a political dilemma that cannot be fully resolved because both the conferral and non-conferral of sub-state autonomy led to increases of autonomy demands. However, it is also shown that the non-conferral of sub-state autonomy can be expected to lead to a greater exacerbation of autonomy demands in large and strongly distinctive and aggrieved sub-state communities, while the non-conferral of autonomy in smaller or less distinctive and aggrieved sub-state communities appeared to lead to persisting autonomy demands, which conferrals accommodated after gradual increases. Thirdly and finally, four plausible scenarios of future evolutions are presented: partial de-federalisation, quasi confederalisation, independence and differentiated de- and re-federalisation.