Modeling the Impact of Local Climate Projections on CO2 Emissions from Vegetation: Application on Five European Case Studies
摘要
This study uses the WRF/Chem-VPRM-EMIMO dynamic downscaling tool to assess the impact of future climate scenarios on CO2 emissions from vegetation, air temperature, and CO2 concentrations in five European regions. Four global climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5) modeled by the global climate model MPI-ESM1.2-HR were rescaled for the period 2015–2050. Using 2018 anthropogenic emissions, land use and satellite data as a reference, the analysis isolates the effects of climate change. An overall increase in temperature was observed in all scenarios, with the CMTo region showing the largest increases, while the SSP3 scenario indicated temperature decreases in Austria, EURAF and Guimaraes. Warmer temperatures led to increased CO2 emissions from vegetation due to increased plant respiration, although regional variations were significant. CO2 concentrations increased mainly in Austria, EURAF and CMTo, while slight decreases were observed in HUAS and Guimaraes. Despite localized improvements in biogenic CO2 emissions, concentrations continued to increase due to external boundary conditions and CO2 transport mechanisms. These results underline the importance of regional studies to better understand and address localized impacts of global climate scenarios. This work, part of the EU-funded DISTENDER project, highlights the need for adaptive vegetation management practices tailored to specific regions, such as optimizing land use and selecting climate-resilient plant species, to enhance carbon sequestration. The study calls for further study of how such strategies can be applied in practice to maximize their impact on global climate change mitigation.