This chapter examines the relationship between fear of punishment, perceived certainty of punishment, and compliance with COVID-19 prevention policies, integrating regulatory focus theory and deterrence literature. Focused on university students in Northwestern Nigeria, the study explores how students’ perceptions of punishment affect their adherence to COVID-19 safety measures. The chapter contributes to the literature by incorporating perceived certainty of punishment as a moderating factor, addressing a gap in existing deterrence research. Theoretically, it extends regulatory focus theory by demonstrating how individuals’ behavior is influenced by the perceived certainty of consequences, highlighting the role of fear in policy compliance. In terms of practical contributions, the chapter emphasizes the importance of clear communication and procedural justice in motivating compliance, offering actionable insights for university management. By applying these insights to a Nigerian context, the study provides a unique perspective on COVID-19 compliance in a developing country setting, where enforcement mechanisms may differ from those in Western contexts. This chapter enriches the book series “Managing Human Capital During the COVID-19 Pandemic – A Global Perspective” by offering a localized understanding of how human behavior can be shaped by regulatory policies during a global crisis, contributing to a broader, cross-cultural dialogue on managing human capital amid the pandemic.