Does It Pay to Keep One’s Word? Pledge Performance, Executive Popularity in France
摘要
This study examines the relationship between pledge performance and executive popularity in France. Drawing on data from the Partipol project and the Executive Approval Project, we analyze 921 executive pledges and the extent to which their fulfillment influences the approval of French presidents from 1995 to 2022. We observe significant fulfillment rates but contrary to the conventional expectation that pledge-keeping enhances executive approval, fulfillment does not enhance executive popularity in France. Instead, we observe a consistent “cost of ruling,” where popularity erodes over time. We argue that the concentration of power in the hands of the French president amplifies this dynamic, leaving little room for positive responses to mandate responsiveness. This research highlights the complexities of accountability mechanisms in a majoritarian system, suggesting that the cost of ruling may overshadow potential rewards for fulfilled promises.