Over the past few years, amidst the dual challenges of climatic change and anthropogenic impacts, comprehensively investigating the effects of shifting climates and vegetation alterations on hydrographic cycles has emerged as pivotal for the Loess Plateau’s sustainable future. This paper examines the land utilization and cover changes across different times and locations in the Jinghe River Basin over the past two decades. Furthermore, the study predicts prospective patterns of land utilization in the basin and examines the characteristics of the basin’s ecosystem conservation of water across different times and locations. Additionally, the study forecasts the characteristics of ecosystem conservation services of water under disparate climate change and land utilization scenarios in the medium and long term. The study revealed that the conservation services of water in the basin across different times and locations from 2000 to 2020 exhibited a cyclical pattern. The protection of forests and other high-nutrient-rich land types, along with the restriction of land utilization expansion in the scenario of ecological protection, are identified as key factors that enhanced the ecosystem’s conservation services of water.