Laws of Hazardous Weather Phenomena Formation in the Sea of Azov Coastal Zone in the Conditions of Climate Change
摘要
The paper presents the research results devoted to analysis of the dynamics of the repeatability of hazardous and adverse hydrometeorological phenomena which occur on the Sea of Azov coast and cause significant economic damage, and sometimes lead to catastrophic consequences in a changing climate over the past fifty years. The current research focused on the analysis and consolidation of data on the hazardous weather phenomena frequency over a 50-year period for 7 coastal stations. These data indicate that among hazardous weather phenomena occurring on the Sea of Azov coast, the most significant in terms of both the frequency of observation and the impact on livelihoods, manufacturing and landownership are: 1 - strong (33 m/s on 09/24/2014 in Taganrog and 40 m/s on 08/22/2006 in Henichesk) and lasting wind (some zones of wind hyperactivity are distinguished where mean annual wind velocity exceed 5 m/s) which results in up and down surges (in November 2019 two-week-long easterly wind over the sea of 10–15 m/s velocity with gusts up to 20 m/s, led to down surge and Taganrog Bay dereliction, the water level in the Don River decreased to a critical level of 110 cm) and also results in strong sea disturbance (amount of days with sea disturbance varies from 50 to 100 per year depending on coastline location); and 2 - powerful atmospheric convection, that triggers the formation of cumulonimbus clouds (an average frequency of 18–20% per year) which, in their turn, provoke thunderstorms (20–35 days per year), hail (2–3 per year), heavy rain precipitation (20–41 days per year) and squally winds. The average annual course of temperature on the entire coast of the Sea of Azov points to climate warming. The available series of observations allowed to identify a consistent coherence between the 22-year solar activity cycles (Hale-cycles), changes in air temperature near the earth and the repeatability of days with hazardous weather phenomena in the coastal part of the Sea of Azov. The analysis was carried out for two periods from 1976 to 1997, and from 1998 to 2019 inclusive, which coincided with 11-year, 21-, 22-, 23- and 24-year cycles of solar activity.