This study investigates the land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Hanoi, Vietnam, from 2003 to 2023 and provides predictions for 2033 and 2043 using a coupled Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model. The rapid urbanization in Hanoi has led to significant shifts in land use, notably the expansion of built-up areas at the cost of agricultural and forest lands. The research utilizes the MOLUSCE plugin within QGIS to simulate LULC changes, incorporating key spatial variables such as digital elevation model (DEM) data, distances from roads, buildings, and waterways, along with historical LULC maps for the years 2003, 2013, and 2023. The CA-ANN model achieved a prediction accuracy of 82.57%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.71, indicating strong agreement between the predicted and actual LULC maps for 2023. The results indicate that built-up areas are expected to increase significantly, growing from 414.61 km2 (12.34%) in 2023 to 610.08 km2 (18.16%) by 2043. Conversely, agricultural and forest lands are projected to decrease, with forest cover shrinking from 531.00 km2 (15.80%) in 2023 to 402.66 km2 (11.98%) by 2043. These changes reflect the ongoing pressures of urbanization, posing challenges to environmental sustainability, such as habitat loss, deforestation, and increased risks of flooding and the urban heat island effect. The study highlights the importance of employing predictive modeling techniques, like the CA-ANN model, for effective urban planning and sustainable land management in rapidly developing regions like Hanoi.

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Prediction of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes Using a Coupled CA-ANN Model in Hanoi Capital, Vietnam

  • Bui B. Thien,
  • Ioshpa R. Alexsander,
  • Krivoguz O. Denis

摘要

This study investigates the land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Hanoi, Vietnam, from 2003 to 2023 and provides predictions for 2033 and 2043 using a coupled Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model. The rapid urbanization in Hanoi has led to significant shifts in land use, notably the expansion of built-up areas at the cost of agricultural and forest lands. The research utilizes the MOLUSCE plugin within QGIS to simulate LULC changes, incorporating key spatial variables such as digital elevation model (DEM) data, distances from roads, buildings, and waterways, along with historical LULC maps for the years 2003, 2013, and 2023. The CA-ANN model achieved a prediction accuracy of 82.57%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.71, indicating strong agreement between the predicted and actual LULC maps for 2023. The results indicate that built-up areas are expected to increase significantly, growing from 414.61 km2 (12.34%) in 2023 to 610.08 km2 (18.16%) by 2043. Conversely, agricultural and forest lands are projected to decrease, with forest cover shrinking from 531.00 km2 (15.80%) in 2023 to 402.66 km2 (11.98%) by 2043. These changes reflect the ongoing pressures of urbanization, posing challenges to environmental sustainability, such as habitat loss, deforestation, and increased risks of flooding and the urban heat island effect. The study highlights the importance of employing predictive modeling techniques, like the CA-ANN model, for effective urban planning and sustainable land management in rapidly developing regions like Hanoi.