A New Approach to Assessing a Company’s Financial Indicators: Taking into Account Business and Financial Risks
摘要
There are two main methods for estimating the value of assets. The first method is the well-known CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), which uses the risk-free rate as the initial return and takes into account only the business risk associated with investing in a specific asset, and not in the market as a whole. The second method is associated with the use of one of two main theories of capital structure (Brusov–Filatova–Orekhova [BFO] theory and Modigliani–Miller [MM] theory), which take into account only the financial risk associated with the use of debt financing and allow the calculation of all financial indicators of a company of arbitrary age (BFO theory) or perpetuity one (MM theory). The article develops a new approach related to the use of the company’s current profitability, taken from the annual report, as a seed profitability of an asset (company). As part of the new approach, a methodology has been developed that makes it possible to calculate all the main financial indicators of a company within the framework of capital structure theories, taking into account both financial and business risks. Transition from CAPM to a new methodology significantly improves the accuracy of the estimate. The new approach, unlike CAPM, has forecasting capabilities.