This article developed a water surface profile prediction model for the Three Gorges Reservoir area based on hydraulic methods. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with flood data such as 2014 and 2020 to assess inundation risk in the region. The results indicated that the average error in peak flood levels at key monitoring stations was within 0.5 m, and the process certainty coefficient exceeded 0.92. Additionally, this model was effectively employed in the actual operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir in late September 2023, offering valuable technical support for real-time scheduling.

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Research and Implementation of Water Surface Profile Prediction Technology in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

  • Jing Zhang,
  • Fangjia Yan,
  • Guoliang Ji,
  • Xiao Guo,
  • Yufeng Ren,
  • Jun Zhang,
  • Ming Zeng,
  • Yu Zhang

摘要

This article developed a water surface profile prediction model for the Three Gorges Reservoir area based on hydraulic methods. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with flood data such as 2014 and 2020 to assess inundation risk in the region. The results indicated that the average error in peak flood levels at key monitoring stations was within 0.5 m, and the process certainty coefficient exceeded 0.92. Additionally, this model was effectively employed in the actual operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir in late September 2023, offering valuable technical support for real-time scheduling.