Charles Mills Tiebout (1924–1968): “Life is a Biased Sample”
摘要
Chapter authors Conway and Hewings note that while Tiebout’s 1956 paper, “A pure theory of local expenditures,” has garnered over 22,000 citations and is the focus of a special issue of The Annals of Regional Science (2024), he also made important contributions to regional economic analysis and institution building. This chapter reviews his initial contributions to the understanding and development of the economic base model that in the late 1950s and 1960s was the main analytical tool at the regional level. Later, he transitioned to input-output modeling but with the same interest in using these models to understand how regional economies worked. Early on in his career, he engaged with North in an exchange that explored the role of location theory in determining regional economic growth and thereby initiated a vigorous debate on the nature of regional economic growth, one that still resonates today. The North-Tiebout debate raised several questions about regional economic behavior: Are exports (domestic and foreign) the key to regional economic growth? Is import substitution a viable path to growth? Do people follow jobs? Are the regional unemployment rate and consumer prices determined in the regional or national market? What are the causes of regional economic cycles? Why have American cities generally thrived, while rural areas have stagnated? In reviewing current policy debates centered on the appropriate choice for regional policies, proponents of cluster-based strategies, smart specialization, and the myriad problems associated with left-behind places, analysts might reflect on the insights that the North-Tiebout debate engendered. In another paper, Tiebout highlighted the important role that households played in regional economic growth. Thereafter, he pivoted to analysis based on input-output models, including producing one of the first two-region (Washington-California) input-output models. One of his innovations was a method to project a region’s economy with the creative use of national forecasts and other regional data. This work laid the foundation for the development of a suite of econometric input-output models that were constructed after Tiebout’s passing.