Predicting stock prices presents significant challenges due to the inherent complexity and chaotic behavior of financial time series data. Traditional deep learning models often struggle to capture long-term dependencies and manage the non-stationary nature of stock prices. To enhance prediction accuracy while effectively addressing these challenges, this paper introduces a framework that employs graph-based feature extraction and Diffusion Variational Autoencoders (Diffusion-VAEs). By transforming stock data into complex graph networks and utilizing feature embeddings alongside a diffusion process, our approach effectively captures both the underlying structure and temporal dependencies, enriching the charac teristics of stock data. Experimental results on real-world stock datasets, spanning both regression and classification tasks, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms recent state-of-the-art models by substantially lowering MAPE and RMSE while boosting the F1-score by over 20%, proving its accuracy and stability.

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Graph-Based Features and Refined Diffusion Models for Stock Price Prediction

  • Cuong Nhat Nguyen,
  • Khang Minh Vuong,
  • Thi Kim Dzung Pham

摘要

Predicting stock prices presents significant challenges due to the inherent complexity and chaotic behavior of financial time series data. Traditional deep learning models often struggle to capture long-term dependencies and manage the non-stationary nature of stock prices. To enhance prediction accuracy while effectively addressing these challenges, this paper introduces a framework that employs graph-based feature extraction and Diffusion Variational Autoencoders (Diffusion-VAEs). By transforming stock data into complex graph networks and utilizing feature embeddings alongside a diffusion process, our approach effectively captures both the underlying structure and temporal dependencies, enriching the charac teristics of stock data. Experimental results on real-world stock datasets, spanning both regression and classification tasks, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms recent state-of-the-art models by substantially lowering MAPE and RMSE while boosting the F1-score by over 20%, proving its accuracy and stability.