Weather Analysis of the Most Crucial Locations with a Special Focus on Possible Extreme Conditions for Renewable Power Engineering
摘要
The chapter reviews the literature on the analysis of historical and future climate data in the context of climate change. The methodology of generating hourly climate files for a typical year is considered. A detailed analysis of the climate data of all regional centres of Ukraine among (24 regions) is carried out, including temperature, wind speed and direction, solar radiation, number of days of temperature standing, and temperature extremes for warm and cold periods of the year. The National Standards of Ukraine provide monthly average climate data for the period 1961–2005, and a comparative analysis of the normative values of ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction with the monthly average hourly data from the Meteonorm climate database shows that there is a difference due to the impact of global warming and climate change. The analysis of hourly solar radiation from the Meteonorm climate database for the cities of Kyiv and Odesa, under different climate change scenarios, revealed that the amount of solar radiation will increase by 2100. The largest growth of the solar radiation on the horizontal surface for both cities in the future will be under RCP2.6; a slightly smaller increase is expected under RCP8.5; and the slowest under RCP4.5. According to Meteonorm’s future climate change scenarios, the outdoor air temperature will increase during the 2020–2100 period. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the outdoor air temperature will increase every decade, and the average annual temperature for Kyiv will be 2.5 °C higher than the current one under RCP2.6, 3.1 °C under RCP4.5 and 5.3 °C under RCP8.5. These changes will lead to a decrease in the number of hours of standing temperatures. The results of the study allow us to analyse the introduction of renewable energy sources in view of climate change and the prospects for their use in different regions of Ukraine.