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Extensive studies have shown that drought conditions, both historical and present, have constrained vegetation proliferation over the preceding three decades. Nevertheless, the specific mechanisms through which previous droughts affect vegetation growth, and the extent of this impact for the remainder of the twenty-first century, remain unclear. Here, we analyzed the evolution and characteristics of global vegetation growth and drought for the baseline period (1982–2014) and the future period (2015–2100) under four representative pathways, utilizing gross primary productivity (GPP) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index derived from CMIP6. Furthermore, we explored the delayed effects of drought on vegetation growth, quantifying the severity of societal and economic vulnerability to drought by precisely identifying vulnerable regions across four diverse emissions scenarios. The results demonstrate a significant upward trend in global terrestrial GPP by the end of the twenty-first century across all four scenarios, with the most substantial increase observed in SSP5-8.5, exhibiting a growth rate of 0.032 kg C m−2 per decade—ten times higher than that of SSP1-2.6. The SPEI change rates for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 are –0.03, –0.01, –0.017, and –0.018 per decade, respectively, highlighting a pronounced intensification of global drought conditions. Approximately, 28.3%, 24.7%, 30.4%, and 35% of global lands exhibit a reduction in mean time-lagged months across the four scenarios. This trend is particularly noticeable in the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (> 45°N), signifying a more rapid vegetation response to drought. Continuous drought is projected to threaten nearly 8, 9.1, 12.9, and 11.5 billion people, with economic losses valued at 94,138 billion (SSP1-2.6), 976,020 billion (SSP2-4.5), 526,595 billion (SSP3-7.0), and 204,728 billion (SSP5-8.5) dollars, respectively. In the future, different countries should develop targeted strategies to combat drought and ensure socio-ecological system stability.

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Time-Lagged Response of Global GPP to Drought and Its Risks Identification

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Tiantian Chen,
  • Li Peng

摘要

Extensive studies have shown that drought conditions, both historical and present, have constrained vegetation proliferation over the preceding three decades. Nevertheless, the specific mechanisms through which previous droughts affect vegetation growth, and the extent of this impact for the remainder of the twenty-first century, remain unclear. Here, we analyzed the evolution and characteristics of global vegetation growth and drought for the baseline period (1982–2014) and the future period (2015–2100) under four representative pathways, utilizing gross primary productivity (GPP) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index derived from CMIP6. Furthermore, we explored the delayed effects of drought on vegetation growth, quantifying the severity of societal and economic vulnerability to drought by precisely identifying vulnerable regions across four diverse emissions scenarios. The results demonstrate a significant upward trend in global terrestrial GPP by the end of the twenty-first century across all four scenarios, with the most substantial increase observed in SSP5-8.5, exhibiting a growth rate of 0.032 kg C m−2 per decade—ten times higher than that of SSP1-2.6. The SPEI change rates for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 are –0.03, –0.01, –0.017, and –0.018 per decade, respectively, highlighting a pronounced intensification of global drought conditions. Approximately, 28.3%, 24.7%, 30.4%, and 35% of global lands exhibit a reduction in mean time-lagged months across the four scenarios. This trend is particularly noticeable in the middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (> 45°N), signifying a more rapid vegetation response to drought. Continuous drought is projected to threaten nearly 8, 9.1, 12.9, and 11.5 billion people, with economic losses valued at 94,138 billion (SSP1-2.6), 976,020 billion (SSP2-4.5), 526,595 billion (SSP3-7.0), and 204,728 billion (SSP5-8.5) dollars, respectively. In the future, different countries should develop targeted strategies to combat drought and ensure socio-ecological system stability.