Mapping Aircraft Turbulence in South African Airspace: A Climate Perspective
摘要
Climate change-induced weather extremes significantly impact the aviation industry, particularly in relation to air turbulence, one of the most significant contributors to aviation losses and damage. Given the threat to safety and security from air turbulence, it is critical to map out air turbulence hotspots and plan for remedial actions. To this end, this study analysed and mapped the locations of air turbulence hotspots within the South African airspace, specifically focusing on the influence of climate. Archival data between 2021 and mid-2024 examined eddy dissipation rates (EDR) and identified periods and regions with high turbulence levels. The findings indicate that South Africa is ranked 28th globally in terms of turbulence severity. Furthermore, there was an increase in the EDR between 2023 and 2024, with a turbulence peak occurring between August and September. The southeastern and southwestern parts of South Africa, particularly areas near the Indian Ocean coast and Drakensberg Mountains, were identified as turbulence hotspots. Additionally, the study revealed that thunderstorms, particularly during the summer months of October to April, contribute to severe turbulence in the central and northeastern regions, which affects major air routes, including those serving Johannesburg International Airport. Consequently, this study recommends improving turbulence forecasting systems and developing targeted adaptation strategies for high-risk areas. These measures are crucial for enhancing passenger safety and minimising disruptions in aviation operations caused by turbulence. Future research in this field should focus on real-time turbulence monitoring and implementation of adaptive flight planning to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate-induced turbulence.