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Evaluation of road safety measures can be a challenging element of road safety management systems in Europe. To deliver Vision Zero and implement the Road Infrastructure Safety Management Directive, national road authorities need reliable estimation tools for road safety countermeasures. Accident Prediction Models (APMs) provide an objective and cost-effective way to analyse potential safety improvements and estimate the potential impact in terms of collision reduction. However, most National Road Administrations (NRAs) do not develop or use APMs. The objective of this paper is to present research undertaken for Ireland’s first APM including the modelling technique used and the data challenges faced. The primary aim of the APM development is to provide local (Irish) estimates for Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) to feed into a tool for use by Road Safety Engineers when estimating the potential collision savings of various interventions.

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Use of Accident Prediction Models in Road Safety Management – An Irish Case Study

  • 会议论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Nathan Harpham,
  • Caroline Wallbank,
  • John Fletcher,
  • Lynne Smith,
  • Gerard Hall,
  • Suzanne Meade

摘要

Evaluation of road safety measures can be a challenging element of road safety management systems in Europe. To deliver Vision Zero and implement the Road Infrastructure Safety Management Directive, national road authorities need reliable estimation tools for road safety countermeasures. Accident Prediction Models (APMs) provide an objective and cost-effective way to analyse potential safety improvements and estimate the potential impact in terms of collision reduction. However, most National Road Administrations (NRAs) do not develop or use APMs. The objective of this paper is to present research undertaken for Ireland’s first APM including the modelling technique used and the data challenges faced. The primary aim of the APM development is to provide local (Irish) estimates for Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) to feed into a tool for use by Road Safety Engineers when estimating the potential collision savings of various interventions.