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The inter-annual changes in average flux of total solar radiation entering these or other areas are one of the main factors of their thermal regime and variations in average intensity of moisture evaporation from the combustible material formed on them. As a result, they can influence the dynamics of risks associated with landscape fires and other climate-related natural hazards in such areas. Consequently, the evolution of existing perceptions of their causes is a current security issue in emergencies. The solution of this problem is the greatest interest is for regions with significant forest resources, whose population is affected by landscape fires annually. In Russia, such regions include the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. One factor that may influence the dynamics of the process under study is variations in the optical density of the cloud due, among other things, to the movement of the North Geomagnetic Pole which has been moving from King William Island since 1903 (Nunavut, Canada), towards the Taimyr peninsula of Krasnoyarsk Territory. However, the significance of this factor on the constant changes in the flux of total solar radiation entering the regions of Russia has not been previously assessed. It has been suggested that for some months of the fire season and many areas of the Arctic through which this pole moves, this factor had a significant influence on the process under study. To test the hypothesis, statistical links between changes in cosmic ray flows entering the troposphere over the Arctic and studied processes over its territories and waters through which the pole moved in the 20th and 21st centuries were analyzed. Moreover for each month of the fire-dangerous season, trends of studied processes are estimated, which appeared over such areas of the earth surface and over the territories of regions of Russia, belonging to Siberia, for 1982–2024. It is established that both the necessary and sufficient condition of adequacy of the proposed hypothesis is fulfilled, as a result of which it can be considered to be fair. Thus, the significance of the impact of the ongoing movement of the North Geomagnetic Pole on the dynamics of fire risks in Siberia has been proven.

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Interannual Changes in the Total Solar Radiation Occurring During the months of the Fire-Threatening Season in the Waters of Arctic and the Shifting of the North Geomagnetic Pole

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • A. V. Kholoptsev,
  • R. G. Shubkin,
  • D. V. Sedov

摘要

The inter-annual changes in average flux of total solar radiation entering these or other areas are one of the main factors of their thermal regime and variations in average intensity of moisture evaporation from the combustible material formed on them. As a result, they can influence the dynamics of risks associated with landscape fires and other climate-related natural hazards in such areas. Consequently, the evolution of existing perceptions of their causes is a current security issue in emergencies. The solution of this problem is the greatest interest is for regions with significant forest resources, whose population is affected by landscape fires annually. In Russia, such regions include the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. One factor that may influence the dynamics of the process under study is variations in the optical density of the cloud due, among other things, to the movement of the North Geomagnetic Pole which has been moving from King William Island since 1903 (Nunavut, Canada), towards the Taimyr peninsula of Krasnoyarsk Territory. However, the significance of this factor on the constant changes in the flux of total solar radiation entering the regions of Russia has not been previously assessed. It has been suggested that for some months of the fire season and many areas of the Arctic through which this pole moves, this factor had a significant influence on the process under study. To test the hypothesis, statistical links between changes in cosmic ray flows entering the troposphere over the Arctic and studied processes over its territories and waters through which the pole moved in the 20th and 21st centuries were analyzed. Moreover for each month of the fire-dangerous season, trends of studied processes are estimated, which appeared over such areas of the earth surface and over the territories of regions of Russia, belonging to Siberia, for 1982–2024. It is established that both the necessary and sufficient condition of adequacy of the proposed hypothesis is fulfilled, as a result of which it can be considered to be fair. Thus, the significance of the impact of the ongoing movement of the North Geomagnetic Pole on the dynamics of fire risks in Siberia has been proven.