This paper presents a framework designed to empirically examine the effects of competing narratives on financial market dynamics. I introduce an agent-based model where traders, driven by opinion dynamics, are influenced by self-reinforcement, herding behaviors, and a cumulative response to new information. My methodical approach involves isolating these factors to enable a parametric analysis of the collective opinion dynamics within the market. This model serves as a testbed to assess various market scenarios. While the findings are based on simulated data and should be interpreted with caution in real-world applications, the model presented here provides valuable tools to investigate market fluctuations. This research establishes a foundation for further studies on trader behavior and market dynamics, and I have made the source code publicly available to encourage replication and further development.

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Simulating Competing Narratives in Financial Markets: A Co-Evolutionary Agent-Based Model with Nonlinear Continuous-Time Opinion Dynamics

  • Arwa Bokhari

摘要

This paper presents a framework designed to empirically examine the effects of competing narratives on financial market dynamics. I introduce an agent-based model where traders, driven by opinion dynamics, are influenced by self-reinforcement, herding behaviors, and a cumulative response to new information. My methodical approach involves isolating these factors to enable a parametric analysis of the collective opinion dynamics within the market. This model serves as a testbed to assess various market scenarios. While the findings are based on simulated data and should be interpreted with caution in real-world applications, the model presented here provides valuable tools to investigate market fluctuations. This research establishes a foundation for further studies on trader behavior and market dynamics, and I have made the source code publicly available to encourage replication and further development.