The OSCE After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
摘要
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 threatened to paralyze the OSCE. Its “consensus rule” allowed Russia to block most major decisions, including on its budget and appointment of senior administrative positions, especially the Secretary-General. Some participating States proposed invoking a “consensus minus one” procedure that had been used to override vetoes by Serbia-Montenegro regarding the Kosovo conflict described in Chapter 12, but this faced two problems: first, other states, especially Belarus, would likely join with Russia in blocking decisions they opposed; second, some states feared that this would drive Russia out of the OSCE, depriving it of one of its main purposes, namely to manage conflicts where Russian participation was necessary to manage them. Thus, at its Ministerial Conference in Valletta, Malta, in December 2024, the 57 Foreign Ministers appointed new administrative leaders of the OSCE and approved a reduced budget. Furthermore, consensus was reached to appoint Switzerland as Chair-in-Office for 2026, and Finland assumed the Chairship in 2025, representing a return to the site of the OSCE’s origins 50 years previously in Helsinki. At the same time, both Presidents Vladimir Putin in Russia and Donald Trump in the United States were highly skeptical of the value of all international institutions, creating uncertainty about the OSCE’s future as it reached its 50th anniversary in 2025.