Land use change is the most important factor influencing change in the carbon cycle. Predicting how land use will change in the future can enable stakeholders understand and identify appropriate land use configurations and effectively control carbon emissions. This investigate utilizes the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use in Fujian province. The model is used to project future land use based on data derived from the LUH2 datasets. Land use change related carbon emission is evaluated by carbon emission factor method. Results indicate that: (i) The Kappa coefficient, OA, and FOM are 0.89, 0.84, and 0.19, indicating that the model performs well; (ii) In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, forest land, construction land, and bareland areas are anticipated to expand, whereas cropland and grassland areas are projected to shrink. Conversely, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, decreases are expected in cropland, grassland, and construction land areas. (iii) The trends of carbon emissions follow a similar pattern across various scenarios. Emissions are projected to increase steadily until around 2050, after which they begin to gradually decline. To achieve the double carbon target, the future land use planning should focus on the protection of cropland, the development of a rational planning strategy for construction land, and the improvement of grassland restoration.