Carbon Sequestration Against Agricultural Production on Example of South Russian Steppes
摘要
Global warming and its consequences are among the most serious problems of this century. The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the main cause of global warming. Along with CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption, increases in global CO2 concentrations are associated with changes in land use and tillage. Sustainable agriculture can help capture atmospheric carbon in the soil-plant system through changes in agricultural technology and management practices and offset some of the emissions caused by unsustainable agricultural practices. We are now developing methods for predicting the effects of climate change on areas with developed but risky agriculture, the choice of land use strategies, and rational approaches to agricultural production. The case study area is the southern steppe in European Russia, which roughly coincides with the Rostov region (the largest administrative unit of European Russia). This region specializes in corn production, mostly wheat, which is being exported in large amounts. We are building a climate-demographic scenario framework based on a simplified Earth System Model named IMOGEN, representing spatial and temporal patterns of 34 general circulation models. IMOGEN is driven by representative global emission scenarios (4RCPs) and socio-economic scenarios (3SSPs). The climate scenario provided by IMOGEN drives the agricultural production and carbon sequestration model, designed on the base of the SEVER dynamic global vegetation model—DGVM. We estimate temporal dynamics of the economic value of agricultural production against carbon sequestration for the period 1950–2060 based on yield and carbon sequestration outcome of the IMOGEN-SEVER DGVM framework.