Global warming poses significant threats to global freshwater and food security and the sustainability of natural ecosystems, particularly in Africa’s Horn region, where future droughts are expected to intensify. This study focuses on the influence of changing water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) and soil moisture on water resources and compound events. To investigate these factors, reanalysis data, satellite data, and regional climate models were used to confirm trend feedback with a one-month delay in soil moisture. Additionally,the study sought to understand moisture convergence and its components from 1981 to 2019 and future scenarios. A multiple linear regression model was used to determine the sign and strength of the feedback between soil moisture (SM) and precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P – E). The Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index was applied to evaluate drought conditions’ onset, duration, and magnitude. The findings underscore the complex relationship between soil moisture and precipitation–evapotranspiration. Mean flow convergence and transient eddy convergence appeared to be significant contributors, accounting for approximately 55% of the overall moisture convergence across the African continent. Consequently, considering soil moisture feedback and moisture convergence becomes crucial when estimating water availability throughout the region. A comprehensive understanding of land-atmospheric feedback and their potential responses to climate change is vital to effectively address future water scarcity issues, particularly in the context of prolonged drought in the study area.