This chapter examines foresight under conditions of high uncertainty, focusing on how decision-makers can plan strategically in unpredictable and complex environments. It explores key concepts such as systemic uncertainty, risk, and serendipity, and discusses frameworks for addressing uncertainty, including the five levels of uncertainty. The chapter highlights the distinction between simple and complex economic systems, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and scenario planning in managing systemic instability. Through creative scenario analysis and strategic flexibility, it offers insights into navigating uncertainty to achieve effective decision-making and long-term planning.

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Foresight Under High Uncertainty

  • Panagiotis E. Petrakis,
  • Giorgos Vasilis,
  • Anna-Maria Kanzola

摘要

This chapter examines foresight under conditions of high uncertainty, focusing on how decision-makers can plan strategically in unpredictable and complex environments. It explores key concepts such as systemic uncertainty, risk, and serendipity, and discusses frameworks for addressing uncertainty, including the five levels of uncertainty. The chapter highlights the distinction between simple and complex economic systems, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and scenario planning in managing systemic instability. Through creative scenario analysis and strategic flexibility, it offers insights into navigating uncertainty to achieve effective decision-making and long-term planning.