This chapter, Different Kinds of Threat, introduces the intelligence analyst to an analytic framework for considering climate security-related information, events, dynamics, and situations. The traditional development of the intelligence analyst—regardless of national security agency, state or local law enforcement agency, military, for-profit corporation, or non-governmental organization—is based on the intentionality of an adversary, whether an individual, group, or state actor, who intends to cause harm. The chapter distinguishes between intentional threats and unintentional threats. For each type of threat, the chapter differentiates the type of threat in terms of its tangible or intangible effect. Examples of each type of threat and effect are drawn from a climate security context: climate security problems can include intentionality, unintentionality, tangibleness, and intangibleness aspects. An overarching scenario is discussed that covers situations when an intentional threat produces a tangible effect, when an intentional threat produces an intangible effect, when an unintentional threat produces a tangible effect, and when an unintentional threat produces an intangible effect. An example based on a climate security scenario centered on the urban development in a coastal region is used to demonstrate the complexities of analyzing climate security. The chapter ends with a discussion of the role of time as played out within the climate context and in traditional intelligence analysis.

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Different Kinds of Threat

  • Adrian Wolfberg

摘要

This chapter, Different Kinds of Threat, introduces the intelligence analyst to an analytic framework for considering climate security-related information, events, dynamics, and situations. The traditional development of the intelligence analyst—regardless of national security agency, state or local law enforcement agency, military, for-profit corporation, or non-governmental organization—is based on the intentionality of an adversary, whether an individual, group, or state actor, who intends to cause harm. The chapter distinguishes between intentional threats and unintentional threats. For each type of threat, the chapter differentiates the type of threat in terms of its tangible or intangible effect. Examples of each type of threat and effect are drawn from a climate security context: climate security problems can include intentionality, unintentionality, tangibleness, and intangibleness aspects. An overarching scenario is discussed that covers situations when an intentional threat produces a tangible effect, when an intentional threat produces an intangible effect, when an unintentional threat produces a tangible effect, and when an unintentional threat produces an intangible effect. An example based on a climate security scenario centered on the urban development in a coastal region is used to demonstrate the complexities of analyzing climate security. The chapter ends with a discussion of the role of time as played out within the climate context and in traditional intelligence analysis.