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Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had a profound impact on global labor markets, resulting in increased work absences and economic disruptions. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in reducing work absences, with a particular focus on the role of vaccination status. Methods: De-identified data spanning from February 2021 to February 2023, was analyzed using various statistical methods. The dataset included 2,107 participants who reported a confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection during the study period. The primary outcome variable was the total days lost due to confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the main exposure variable was SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status (vaccinated or unvaccinated). Descriptive statistics, independent samples t-tests, ANOVA probing, multiple regression analysis, and a Random Forest model were employed to identify significant predictors of total days missed and assess the relative importance of these predictors. Results: The study found a counterintuitive result with vaccinated individuals having a higher attack rate (24.30%) compared to unvaccinated individuals (17.21%) and an absolute risk reduction (-0.0709). This was an unexpected finding and warrants further investigation (p-value < 0.001). Propensity score matching was used to balance the covariates between the groups, and the matching process was found to be effective based on the overlap of propensity score distributions. Sensitivity analysis using caliper matching confirmed the robustness of the findings. Conclusions: The study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and work absences. The higher attack rate among vaccinated individuals highlights the need for further research to understand the underlying factors and inform evidence-based decision-making in the workplace and public health settings. The findings have implications for workplace policies and public health strategies related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection control.

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Evaluating Vaccine Effectiveness During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from Statistical and Machine Learning Methods

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Dominic Etli

摘要

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had a profound impact on global labor markets, resulting in increased work absences and economic disruptions. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in reducing work absences, with a particular focus on the role of vaccination status. Methods: De-identified data spanning from February 2021 to February 2023, was analyzed using various statistical methods. The dataset included 2,107 participants who reported a confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection during the study period. The primary outcome variable was the total days lost due to confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the main exposure variable was SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status (vaccinated or unvaccinated). Descriptive statistics, independent samples t-tests, ANOVA probing, multiple regression analysis, and a Random Forest model were employed to identify significant predictors of total days missed and assess the relative importance of these predictors. Results: The study found a counterintuitive result with vaccinated individuals having a higher attack rate (24.30%) compared to unvaccinated individuals (17.21%) and an absolute risk reduction (-0.0709). This was an unexpected finding and warrants further investigation (p-value < 0.001). Propensity score matching was used to balance the covariates between the groups, and the matching process was found to be effective based on the overlap of propensity score distributions. Sensitivity analysis using caliper matching confirmed the robustness of the findings. Conclusions: The study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and work absences. The higher attack rate among vaccinated individuals highlights the need for further research to understand the underlying factors and inform evidence-based decision-making in the workplace and public health settings. The findings have implications for workplace policies and public health strategies related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection control.