Acting with Uncertainty: Reflecting on a Decade of Rapid Progress in Climate Policy, Research and Practice
摘要
The last decade has witnessed huge advances in climate policy, science and practice, assisted by technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, cloud computing and Earth observation. This chapter outlines important developments in each realm, noting where there is now more or less uncertainty. For policy, the 2015 Paris Agreement set in play new instruments for both mitigating and adapting to climate change at national levels. But stubborn uncertainties around climate sensitivity still hamper efforts to relate emission reduction pathways to avoided impacts. At the scale of countries, cities and corporations, reduced policy uncertainty is driving the rise of net-zero commitments and technical innovation. For science, key developments include real-time climate attribution, improved understanding of land-ocean feedbacks on climate extremes, and higher resolution climate modelling, underpinned by high-quality gridded data. Major unresolved uncertainties exist around aerosol and carbon cycle feedbacks, the dynamical response of ice sheets, attendant ranges in sea level rise and existential threats to coastal communities. For practice, there has been greater mainstreaming of climate information, tools and services in decision-making, as well as adaptation planning plus growth in climate litigation. Nonetheless, there remains deep uncertainty about the future water, food and energy security of billions of people, especially for those dependent on snow and ice stores. But more accurate forecasts and earlier warning systems are generally improving preparedness for extreme weather. We assert that a precautionary stance is legitimate when considering the ethical consequences of climate uncertainty. Finally, we point to sectors warranting more attention by uncertainty scholars including education, energy, housing, sport and leisure.