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Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging, given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society.

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The Importance of Internal Variability for the Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections and Decision-Making

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Flavio Lehner,
  • Clara Deser

摘要

Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging, given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society.