Uncertainty in Determining Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health
摘要
Climate change is altering the burden of climate-sensitive injuries, illnesses, mental health challenges, and deaths, with projections indicating these impacts will increase with further warming. In addition, climate change will increasingly affect healthcare facilities, reducing access to services. Sources of uncertainties when projecting changes in the magnitude and pattern of health risks and impacts on healthcare infrastructure include the quality and extent of health data, validity of quantifications of relationships between weather/climate data and health outcomes, robustness of models of the risks of climate change for health, pathways of future development and of population growth and dynamics, and effective alignment of analytic scales with decision-making. These uncertainties compound from climate drivers through to health outcomes. The projected increasing complexity and severity of risks requires that health decision-makers work closely with professionals in other sectors to promote climate resilient and low carbon health systems. Investments in proactive, timely, and efficient adaptations that explicitly account for uncertainties, within the context of an iterative management program, and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce projected risks.