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This study points out the underexplored skyrocketing movement of a war-led humanitarian crisis in Palestine, oil prices, and food prices worldwide based on the augmented Phillips curve framework enabling this study to specifically draw for the first time the predictive analytics on humanitarian crisis (HCRISIS) happening in Palestinian territories, oil price (OIL), and global food price (FOOD). It is theoretically necessary to address how the humanitarian crisis in Palestine potentially draws 4 billion Muslims, Christians, and Jews combined to the center of the conflict provoking oil exporting countries to utilize oil as a political show of force causing a stronger effect of oil price on food prices. Using predictive analytics techniques with linear and exponential smoothing forecasting, the author collected data from 2015 to 2022. The findings revealed that OIL and FOOD are predicted to keep skyrocketing for the next five years as long as the HCRISIS in Palestine keeps occurring. As the originality of this study, the author utilizes the recently created global index for risk management (INFORM) by the European Union (2015) as the proxy for HCRISIS in Palestine. INFORM Severity Index provides a comprehensive humanitarian crises assessment of countries encompassing three dimensions namely hazard and exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity that have the potential to exceed the capability of state response efforts.

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Pythonic Accounting with Predictive Analytics in Palestine Humanitarian Crisis: Is the World Heading to a New Security Crisis?

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Dzakiyy Hadiyan Achyar

摘要

This study points out the underexplored skyrocketing movement of a war-led humanitarian crisis in Palestine, oil prices, and food prices worldwide based on the augmented Phillips curve framework enabling this study to specifically draw for the first time the predictive analytics on humanitarian crisis (HCRISIS) happening in Palestinian territories, oil price (OIL), and global food price (FOOD). It is theoretically necessary to address how the humanitarian crisis in Palestine potentially draws 4 billion Muslims, Christians, and Jews combined to the center of the conflict provoking oil exporting countries to utilize oil as a political show of force causing a stronger effect of oil price on food prices. Using predictive analytics techniques with linear and exponential smoothing forecasting, the author collected data from 2015 to 2022. The findings revealed that OIL and FOOD are predicted to keep skyrocketing for the next five years as long as the HCRISIS in Palestine keeps occurring. As the originality of this study, the author utilizes the recently created global index for risk management (INFORM) by the European Union (2015) as the proxy for HCRISIS in Palestine. INFORM Severity Index provides a comprehensive humanitarian crises assessment of countries encompassing three dimensions namely hazard and exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity that have the potential to exceed the capability of state response efforts.