Cryptocurrency in a Time of Conflict: Assessing the Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on the CCI-30 Index
摘要
The Russo-Ukrainian War has significantly influenced global dynamics, impacting various economic sectors, including the cryptocurrency market. This study focuses on the Crypto Compare Index 30 (CCI-30), considered the top 30 cryptocurrencies from 2018 to 2024. The research uses correlation analysis and a linear regression model to examine the extent of the war’s impact on the CCI-30. Subsequently, a neural network model employing the Nadam optimization algorithm was developed to predict the performance of the CCI-30 based on date and Russo-Ukrainian war variables. The optimized model, featuring five hidden layers, demonstrated a robust predictive capability with an R2 value of 98% and an RMSE of approximately 0.0393. These results revealed the significance of geopolitical events in analyzing movements within the cryptocurrency market.