Industrial plants can be highly susceptible to seismic activity. Historical seismic events have highlighted the severe impact and significant economic losses that an industrial plant can suffer, not only due to physical damage to equipment but also due to disruptions in production processes. To quantify these economic losses, an evaluation of the plant’s seismic resilience is necessary. This paper introduces a general probabilistic framework for assessing industrial plant resilience and economic losses in the event of seismic activity. The framework considers uncertainties related to the plant equipment’s ability to withstand disturbances and the recovery process, including equipment recovery times and costs. Generated samples by Monte Carlo simulations are employed to derive these uncertainties. A black carbon plant serves as a case study to demonstrate the model’s applicability. The suitability of the proposed model indicate that it represents a valuable tool for decision-makers, plant owners, insurance companies, emergency managers, and plant designers.

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A Probabilistic Approach for Seismic Resilience Analysis of Hazardous Industrial Facilities in Seismic Areas

  • Fabrizio Paolacci,
  • Antonio Caputo,
  • Daniele Corritore,
  • Gianluca Quinci

摘要

Industrial plants can be highly susceptible to seismic activity. Historical seismic events have highlighted the severe impact and significant economic losses that an industrial plant can suffer, not only due to physical damage to equipment but also due to disruptions in production processes. To quantify these economic losses, an evaluation of the plant’s seismic resilience is necessary. This paper introduces a general probabilistic framework for assessing industrial plant resilience and economic losses in the event of seismic activity. The framework considers uncertainties related to the plant equipment’s ability to withstand disturbances and the recovery process, including equipment recovery times and costs. Generated samples by Monte Carlo simulations are employed to derive these uncertainties. A black carbon plant serves as a case study to demonstrate the model’s applicability. The suitability of the proposed model indicate that it represents a valuable tool for decision-makers, plant owners, insurance companies, emergency managers, and plant designers.