Ecosystem Climate Change Assessment Based on the Synphytoindication Method
摘要
The synphytoindication method is based on grade indicators of the participation and distribution of characteristic species concerning their growth in specific ecological conditions presented as quantitative scales. The climatic scales rely on grade-based indicators of species habitat amplitude since species distribution depends on climate conditions. The outlines of species habitats have been superimposed on the isochore map of four climate parameters that reflect hydrothermal regime: thermoclimate, cryoclimate, continentality, and ombroregime. The focus is on the correlation of ecological scales and the indicators used in climatology. It has been shown that climate serves as the trigger mechanism producing an impact on soil edaphic properties, and such indirect influence on vegetation is sometimes more robust than the direct one. Analyzing correlations between climatic and other indicators has enabled us to evaluate how changes in limiting ecological factors depend on zonal climate conditions to illustrate the nonlinear development of ecosystems. The change in their existing conditions with the rise in mean annual temperatures by +1, +2, and +3 °C has been calculated. The results of such fluctuations can be treated as imbalance, non-recovery, or collapse of ecosystems with the launch of the succession processes in habitats, leading to their disappearance, migration, or changes in ecological niches’ structures through adaptive mechanisms. The risks of possible loss of rare species and plant communities and the broad adaptive capabilities of adventive species are assessed on individual examples. Some examples illustrate the feasibility of using the synphytoindication method to assess the climate-stabilizing role of forest ecosystems, their landscapes, and territorial and temporal changes.