It is crucial to analyze land use/land cover change (LULC) in historical and future scenarios when creating policies for sustainable development. Dam Rong district of Lam Dong province in Vietnam has recently experienced uncontrolled land use changes. This study aims to evaluate the rate and scale of LULC change over the past 12 years and simulate future scenarios in Dam Rong district by utilizing remote sensing images, GIS, and integration model of logistic regression-Markov chains. The maximum likelihood classifier has been applied to extract from satellite images of 2010, 2016, and 2022 land use/land cover maps with five land use/land cover groups, including built-up land, agricultural land, forest land, water bodies, and bare land. This study uses nine factors driving the land use change process. The integration model of logistic regression-Markov chain is used to forecast land use change in 2028 and 2034 after performing validation by comparing simulation and reality results in 2022 using indicators Kappa. The research results show that the trend of forest land area has sharply decreased due to the conversion to agricultural land and built-up land. Compared to 2022, from 2010 to 2022, the forest area decreased by 25.8% and is forecast to continue to decrease by 12.06% in 2034. In contrast, from 2010 to 2022, the area of agricultural land and built-up land increased by 23.37% and 1.54%, respectively, and is forecast to increase by 7.34% and 2.50% in 2034, respectively. This study provides useful information to land use planners to improve LULC policies in the future and develops management strategies for mountainous areas in the context of sustainable forest and land use planning and management.

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Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics Detection and Prediction in Highland Area of Vietnam Using Logistic Regression: A Case Study of Dam Rong District Lam Dong Province

  • Cuong Huu Nguyen,
  • Cuong Van Nguyen,
  • Tien Ngoc My Nguyen

摘要

It is crucial to analyze land use/land cover change (LULC) in historical and future scenarios when creating policies for sustainable development. Dam Rong district of Lam Dong province in Vietnam has recently experienced uncontrolled land use changes. This study aims to evaluate the rate and scale of LULC change over the past 12 years and simulate future scenarios in Dam Rong district by utilizing remote sensing images, GIS, and integration model of logistic regression-Markov chains. The maximum likelihood classifier has been applied to extract from satellite images of 2010, 2016, and 2022 land use/land cover maps with five land use/land cover groups, including built-up land, agricultural land, forest land, water bodies, and bare land. This study uses nine factors driving the land use change process. The integration model of logistic regression-Markov chain is used to forecast land use change in 2028 and 2034 after performing validation by comparing simulation and reality results in 2022 using indicators Kappa. The research results show that the trend of forest land area has sharply decreased due to the conversion to agricultural land and built-up land. Compared to 2022, from 2010 to 2022, the forest area decreased by 25.8% and is forecast to continue to decrease by 12.06% in 2034. In contrast, from 2010 to 2022, the area of agricultural land and built-up land increased by 23.37% and 1.54%, respectively, and is forecast to increase by 7.34% and 2.50% in 2034, respectively. This study provides useful information to land use planners to improve LULC policies in the future and develops management strategies for mountainous areas in the context of sustainable forest and land use planning and management.