In mountainous regions, temperature conditions affect the precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and in turn the runoff formation and the probability of flood events. The projected temperature increase due to global warming therefore directly affects the liquid precipitation amount during heavy storms, leading to a potential intensification of the flood regime. In this study we assess the impact of elevation on projected variations in the liquid/solid fraction of precipitation during intense precipitation events and, in turn, on projected amplification of rainfall extremes in the upper Adige river catchment (Eastern Italian Alps). To this aim, an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are used. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1 h temporal resolution and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical (1996–2005) and far future (2090–2099) time periods under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In order to assess the future risk posed by rainfall extremes, the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach is applied to the CPM simulations for frequency analysis. The results focus on snow-driven projected changes in extreme rainfall at different elevation bands. It is shown that the amplification of rainfall extremes is dependent on temperature through the change in the snow fraction and so on elevation, given that the warming increases with elevation. Moreover, the results highlight that the projected risk of rainfall extremes increases with elevation, but not homogeneously for different return levels. This is expected to have implications for both water resources management and adaptation strategies in mountainous regions.

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Elevation-Dependent Amplification of Rainfall Extremes: The Role of Rainfall/Snowfall Fraction in Convection-Permitting Models

  • Matteo Pesce,
  • Petr Vohnicky,
  • Eleonora Dallan,
  • Francesco Marra,
  • Giorgia Fosser,
  • Marco Borga

摘要

In mountainous regions, temperature conditions affect the precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and in turn the runoff formation and the probability of flood events. The projected temperature increase due to global warming therefore directly affects the liquid precipitation amount during heavy storms, leading to a potential intensification of the flood regime. In this study we assess the impact of elevation on projected variations in the liquid/solid fraction of precipitation during intense precipitation events and, in turn, on projected amplification of rainfall extremes in the upper Adige river catchment (Eastern Italian Alps). To this aim, an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are used. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1 h temporal resolution and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical (1996–2005) and far future (2090–2099) time periods under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In order to assess the future risk posed by rainfall extremes, the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach is applied to the CPM simulations for frequency analysis. The results focus on snow-driven projected changes in extreme rainfall at different elevation bands. It is shown that the amplification of rainfall extremes is dependent on temperature through the change in the snow fraction and so on elevation, given that the warming increases with elevation. Moreover, the results highlight that the projected risk of rainfall extremes increases with elevation, but not homogeneously for different return levels. This is expected to have implications for both water resources management and adaptation strategies in mountainous regions.