Petroleum Resources and Energy Transitions in the MENA Region: Geopolitical and Economic Implications
摘要
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has historically been of strategic importance to the United States, largely due to its commitment to maintaining military dominance to protect Israel and meet hydrocarbon demands. The United States has traditionally leveraged oil resources and its geopolitical alliances to sustain influence in the region. However, as the United States pivots toward green energy initiatives and reduces petroleum imports from Gulf nations, its regional influence has diminished, creating opportunities for China and Russia to strengthen their footholds. While oil resources have transformative potential, the region continues to grapple with political instability, conflicts, and a complex web of national and international interests that often convert these assets into sources of discord. Recent US actions have further strained trust among Gulf nations. The unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, the sudden pullout from Afghanistan, and unwavering support for Israel amid repeated UN calls for a ceasefire in Gaza have raised doubts about the United States as a reliable development partner. Following the 2024 US elections, the President-elect’s call to end the war in Gaza has added a new dimension to the region’s dynamics. Nevertheless, skepticism remains, and several MENA countries are increasingly aligning with China and Russia. The inclusion of numerous MENA nations in BRICS during 2024 has solidified this trend, furthering efforts by Russia and China to reduce reliance on the US dollar and challenging the petrodollar system that has been a cornerstone of US influence since 1973. China’s growing dominance in the region has been evident since the inception of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, which integrates MENA into a larger network of economic, political, and cultural ties. Beijing has made substantial investments to secure both land and maritime routes for fossil fuel transportation, diminishing US leverage over these critical supply chains. Measures such as establishing naval bases to protect shipping routes illustrate China’s strategy to counter potential US sanctions and secure uninterrupted resource access. As the largest consumer of MENA’s petroleum, China’s robust economic and strategic partnerships have increasingly overshadowed US influence in the region. The MENA geopolitical landscape is also being reshaped by recent developments, including the overthrow of the French-supported government in Niger and covert backing by China and Russia in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. These shifts highlight a realignment of power dynamics as traditional US alliances erode. Together, these trends signal a weakening of US influence in the region, with MENA nations gravitating toward alternative global powers.