Rule-Based Expert System with Bayesian Theory and Fuzzy Inference for Vocational Guidance: A Tool to Prevent School Dropouts
摘要
Vocational guidance has a high impact on the lives of students. Its application within high school programs should be considered almost mandatory for young people to successfully complete a university degree and embark on their professional life with pleasure, integrating into the labor area in something that truly satisfies them and encourages them to always be innovating and seeking to exceed their own expectations. This work seeks to develop new technological tools and algorithms for career choice as the main axis of success in higher education. By applying techniques such as Bayesian theory and Fuzzy inference, we seek to create an expert system based on rules that guides young people in this important decision. Likewise, the probability of success or failure in the chosen career is highlighted based on issues such as the experience and aptitudes of the student, the type of educational demand that the career has and the Sufficient probability (LS) and Required probability (LN) using fuzzy sets to approximate the result. The accuracy obtained in most of the areas evaluated corresponds to more than 50% of the correct answers in which the expert system correctly classified the students if we consider those areas that obtained the highest number of students in their classification. The people who took the test, who were mostly men and women between 16 and 35 years old, said that they had not had any kind of guidance, and that they chose their university career based on their own tastes, leaving aside the skills in which they excel. 50% agreed with the result obtained in the test, they were correctly classified, 30% commented on other interests, since they were not classified correctly, and 20% showed a neutral position with the result. Of the total number of people surveyed, 70% of them said that it is valuable information for choosing their educational and professional path.