Escalation and the Rising Threat of Transatlantic Disunity

The unity among NATO member states regarding support for Ukraine is increasingly becoming uncertain. It is argued that several factors contribute to this phenomenon, notably NATO’s progressive shift from a purely defensive alliance to one with offensive capabilities. NATO’s involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian war, specifically its military support for Ukraine, has intensified the conflict, resulting in varying levels of disunity among member countries. This disunity is evident in the range of responses from member states, which span from advocating for de-escalation to endorsing full military escalation. Subsequently, this chapter examines the Ukrainian and Russian escalatory actions by considering NATO’s Article 5 and Russia’s nuclear deployment doctrine. Correspondingly, a critical detailed discussion linking escalation and disunity, focussing on the institutional level by comparing differences between Macron’s escalation policy, Stoltenberg’s new vision for NATO, which aims to achieve peace through escalation, Zelenskyy’s Path to Peace initiative, and Orbán’s opt-out policies, is provided. The chapter concludes by discussing the systemic disunity within NATO and the global disunity or geopolitical dichotomy within the Western Alliance.