Ukraine Between Aid, Defeat, and Resurgence

This chapter examines the emerging trend of declining military aid to Ukraine from its Western allies. Critical discussions focus on the connection between reduced weapons supplies and the resurgence of aid through alternative methods, prompted by worsening battlefield conditions and dwindling stocks among Western nations. This analysis is set against Russia’s response, highlighting the distinction between short-term, ad-hoc aid and more sustainable, long-term support for Ukraine. The latter raises challenges, contrasting Ukraine’s situation with Russian advances and the renewed optimism for Ukrainian success. The chapter also argues that there is a disconnect between USA and other Western allies’ expectations regarding Ukraine’s military performance, particularly with the Kursk incursion and Russian gains. While the USA and its allies anticipate a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025, this outcome is questioned due to the uncertain commitment to providing additional military aid throughout 2024.