Trump-Proofing Ukraine Aid: NATO and EU Geopolitics

In the context of the Russo-Ukraine War, this chapter examines the interactions between Donald Trump’s foreign policy, NATO, and the European Union. It focuses on Trump’s criticism of NATO, particularly his concerns over the unequal burden on the USA vis-a-vis limited contributions from European allies. This is contrasted with traditional US foreign policy. The analysis highlights how Trump’s isolationism impacts European unity, especially in the context of the Russo-Ukraine War, while comparing his approach to Biden’s internationalist stance. Trump’s isolationism is contrasted with the legacy of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during Trump’s presidency and anticipated challenges for his potential successor, Mark Rutte. Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, it is argued that Rutte will face significant difficulties in navigating NATO’s future and advocating for a balanced member states strategy. The chapter concludes by discussing the potential impact of Viktor Orbán’s EU presidency on NATO and EU cohesion, especially in the case of Trump’s second presidential term.