Solar radiation prediction has been studied within the academic context in several geographical locations to determine the variables that affect this phenomenon. However, there are no specific studies that have been carried out in the province of Manabí in Ecuador. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study develops a predictive model using machine learning algorithms to estimate solar radiation. A quantitative methodology is used with data collected from the TJ-JUNAYA weather station located in the Playa Prieta area of Manabí. The results indicate that the XGBoost algorithm is the most effective for predicting solar radiation based on RMSE, MSE, and R2 metrics, with the UV index being the most influential variable. This study is important for two main reasons. First, it helps people in make better decisions by giving them tools to predict sunlight, which can make solar energy systems work better. Second, it uses weather details that were not used before to make better prediction models.

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Predicting Solar Radiation in Manabí: A Machine Learning Approach

  • Daniel Arteaga-Subiaga,
  • Jorge Parraga-Alava,
  • Lucía Rivadeneira

摘要

Solar radiation prediction has been studied within the academic context in several geographical locations to determine the variables that affect this phenomenon. However, there are no specific studies that have been carried out in the province of Manabí in Ecuador. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study develops a predictive model using machine learning algorithms to estimate solar radiation. A quantitative methodology is used with data collected from the TJ-JUNAYA weather station located in the Playa Prieta area of Manabí. The results indicate that the XGBoost algorithm is the most effective for predicting solar radiation based on RMSE, MSE, and R2 metrics, with the UV index being the most influential variable. This study is important for two main reasons. First, it helps people in make better decisions by giving them tools to predict sunlight, which can make solar energy systems work better. Second, it uses weather details that were not used before to make better prediction models.