Exploring the Impacts of CAVs, EVs and MaaS on Future Transport Systems: Results of an International Delphi Study
摘要
Innovation in the transport sector is evolving tremendously with the existence of new disruptive technologies, such as connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs), electric vehicles (EVs), and new innovative business models like car sharing, on demand transport and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS). This paper aims to explore the impacts of the aforementioned innovations, on different parts of future transport systems and urban structure, by investigating expert’s views on a number of issues using the Delphi method. There are many advantages to this method, due to the fact that respondents are anonymous and dominant experts do not influence answers of other participants. This survey was international as it included experts from seven different countries around the globe and also the participants were either practitioners in the field or working in academia, elements which are central because they provide diversity in terms of views and consensus in different questions. The indicators selected for the creation of the questionnaire were related to either transport, land use or socioeconomic characteristics and in order to ensure consistency in the survey, multiple-choice questions were conducted and consensus was achieved when the probability of occurrence surpassed 50%. Two rounds were carried out and some indicative conclusions are related to changes in value of time, car ownership, road capacity, trip generation, accessibility and land use impacts of these innovations. The conclusions from this analysis can contribute to a better understanding of different impacts that occur from disruptive technologies and can be essential for policy makers, transport practitioners, urban planners and researchers.